USD: FOMC On Hold With A Balanced Message; Expected USD Response – BofAML

May 01,2019 07:55   Source:Forex Crunch

The US Dollar is eagerly awaiting the Fed decision. How will the greenback respond?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses its expectations for the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday.

“As widely expected, we expect the FOMC to stay on hold at the conclusion of the 30 April-1 May meeting. The Fed should deliver a balanced message on the economy through the policy statement and the press conference,” BofAML projects.

“A hawkish rates response to this Wednesdays FOMC decision is likely to provide support to the USDFOMC decisions have tended to support USD in the days following Fed statement release. Over the last year, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was up 8 times and down zero for an average return of about 1% five days post-Fed. Notably, current price action as measured over the last 20 days is about 90% correlated to April 2018 decision, after which the DXY appreciated by about 3% over the next month.

 Moreover, USD carry remains strong, seasonals bullish and volatility abnormally low. This combination can support further USD gains over the near term,” BofAML adds. 

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