USD/JPY: Upside Risks Post-Golden Week Holidays On Retail Investors’ Position Unwinds – NAB

May 01,2019 08:10   Source:Forex Crunch

Dollar/yen is losing some ground as Japan is on holiday. What’s next?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

NAB Research discusses USD/JPY tactical outlook and flags a scope for upside after the end of the Golden Week holidays in Japan.

“We noted that Japanese retail FX traders were running extended net long TRY/JPY (and ZAR/JPY) positions into the start of Golden Week – a 6-day holiday period during which the TFE, Gaitame.com and other margin trading exchanges will remain open. This is seen to entail some risk of a repeat of the January 3rd JPY-related ‘flash crashes’ in the event we see violent moves in TRY (or ZAR) this week. But maybe more pertinent is that retail investors are running record short USD/JPY positions on the TFE  – perhaps in part as a defensive strategy during Golden Week (or indeed to benefit from another flash crash event),” NAB notes.

“As such, if we are spared a stronger JPY this week, there must be a risk that position unwinds by retail investors support a stronger USD/JPY next week and beyond, at a time when the stronger USD environment in any event suggests that the risks to the prevailing ¥110.50 to ¥112.85 range lies to the upside,” NAB adds,

For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus

By signing up for eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch.

The post USD/JPY: Upside Risks Post-Golden Week Holidays On Retail Investors’ Position Unwinds – NAB appeared first on Forex Crunch.



沪ICP备13043996号-3  TradeQQ Media Group 汇讯通