EUR/USD about to break to new yearly lows?

May 07,2019 19:08   Source:Admiral Markets
<p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/technical-analysis/eur-usd-new-lows-06-05-2019"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/8e7d0bd84d62fe0e9aca7c5b45a7981f.png"></a></p><p><em>Source: Economic Events 06 May 2019 - </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/forex-calendar"><em>Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar</em></a></p> <p>Even though the economic calendar is relatively thin into the start of the week, it will be interesting to see the aftermath of the Non-Farm Payrolls last Friday, Retail Sales data from the Eurozone today and the market's reaction after <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1125069836088950784">Trump's announcement</a> of new tariffs on Chinese products on Sunday, emphasising that the negotiations are not going fast enough. </p><p>That said, a stronger USD seems likely on a broad front, especially against the Euro, which is also likely to be attacked by Trump in regards to tariffs. The reason for this? The currencies of the affected economies (China and Europe) should see losses of their respective currencies to counter the negative impacts of tariffs on their goods against the USD. </p><p>If today's Retail Sales data for the Eurozone disappoint as well, a push lower in the EUR/USD seems likely. Numbers for February came in strong and rose 2.8% from a year earlier, following growth of 2.2% in January and easily beating market expectations of 2.3%.</p><p>But several weak data sets from Germany and the Eurozone over the last weeks leave chances high that the dataset today could come in below expectations, too, resulting out of rising recession fears, Brexit uncertainties and repeated tarrif threats against the Eurozone. </p><p>From a price action perspective, only a push back above 1.1260 would brighten the technical picture on H4, on a daily time-frame we consider a daily close above 1.1330 crucial to revoke the advantage from the bears. </p><p>As long as we trade below 1.1260, another stint down towards and below 1.1100 is an option: </p><p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/technical-analysis/eur-usd-new-lows-06-05-2019"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/c7c46403cc6437c9ce0dbb1c72f61d5f.png"></a></p><p>Source: Admiral Markets <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5">MT5</a> with <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5">MT5SE Add-on</a> EURUSD 4-hour chart (between 24 March 2019 to 03 May 2019). Accessed: 03 May 2019 at 10:00 PM GMT</p><p><em>Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance. </em></p><p><em>In 2014, the value of the EURUSD fell by 11.9%, in 2015, it fell by 10.2%, in 2016 it fell by 3.2%, in 2017 it increased by 13.92%, 2018 it fell by 4.4%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 16.5%.</em></p> <p><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/technical-analysis/eur-usd-new-lows-06-05-2019"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/14b54d1a0d4ea1f264b7fcbc79821db8.png"></a></p> <p><em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em></p><ol><li>This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.</li><li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li><li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations. </li><li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li><li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li><li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li><li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li><li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li><li>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure">risks</a>.</li></ol>

沪ICP备13043996号-3  TradeQQ Media Group 汇讯通