April lows in Gold has our attention – NFPs to be a bearish catalyst for a break?

May 07,2019 19:22   Source:Admiral Markets
<p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/technical-analysis/gold-low-nfp-break"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/1d192bbb7799901efe237f1a4ed921ce.png" rel="" alt="Economic events calendar" style=""></a> </p><p> <em>Source: Economic Events May 3, 2019 - </em><em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/forex-calendar">Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar</a></em> </p><p> <br> </p><p> Today, the eyes of the market will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls, hoping to spot any signal that they'll act as an accelerator in Gold for a break below 1,266 USD. </p><p> In our opinion, chances of this happening seem likely: after the release of ADP data on Wednesday, reporting that US private businesses hired 275k workers in April (exceeding an expected 180k, and usually acts as a first indication), one can see why. </p><p> Sure, the weak ISM Manufacturing data was released later that day, coming in at 52.8 (against an expected 55 points, its lowest level since October 2016) and particularly when coupled with the low reading for the ISM employment component at 52.4 against 55.8 - should be taken with a grain of salt. </p><p> But the main reason for our bearish outlook for Gold is a result of comments from Fed chairman Powell: at the rate decision last Wednesday, he made a point to emphasize that he does not see a case for shifting the Fed's monetary policy 'in either direction'. </p><p> With that in mind, and knowing that markets predicted a 60% chance of a rate cut from the Fed through December 2019, we think that there is still too much dovishness priced into existing Fed policy to expect a change. </p><p> That said, any NFP data set that comes in as expected or slightly above 185k, especially with Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) surprising on the upside (0.3% and above), is capable of accelerating movement in Gold on the downside, and result of a push to our <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/gold-head-shoulder-strategy">Head-should-projected target around 1,230 USD</a> in the coming days: </p><p> <br> <br> </p><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/technical-analysis/gold-low-nfp-break"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/f812f40fa6254a63499979dd43870522.png" rel="" alt="Gold index daily chart" style=""></a> </p><p> <em>Source: Admiral Markets </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><em>MT5</em></a><em> with </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-se"><em>MT5-SE Add-on</em></a><em> Gold Daily chart (between January 31, 2018, to May 2, 2019). Accessed: May 2, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.</em> </p><p> In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016 it increased by 8.1%, in 2017 it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%. </p><p><strong>Investing in Forex with Admiral Markets</strong></p><p> Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition! </p><p> <a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/trading-platforms/metatrader-5"><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/technical-analysis/gold-low-nfp-break"><img style="width:auto;" class="img-responsive" src="https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/articles/remote/935e99f41f4875f16aa1b59cbaf7266d.png" rel="" alt="Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!" style=""></a></a> </p><p> <em>Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:</em> </p><ol> <li>This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.</li> <li>Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.</li> <li>Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations. </li> <li>To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.</li> <li>Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</li> <li>The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.</li> <li>Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.</li> <li>The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.</li> </ol><p><em>Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the </em><a href="https://admiralmarkets.com/risk-disclosure"><em>risks</em></a><em>.</em></p>

沪ICP备13043996号-3  TradeQQ Media Group 汇讯通